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Online betting says Obama odds-on favorite to win

News published by Kioskea on Tuesday October 14, 2008 10:26:22 PM
Illinois Senator Barack Obama

US Democratic presidential candidate Illinois Senator Barack Obama makes a statement on the economy at Maumee Bay Resort in Oregon, Ohio. Online betting makes Obama the heavy odds-on favorite in the upcoming US presidential election, according to a leading online bookmaker whose reliability some analysts believe equals or betters that of opinion polls.

Online betting makes Barack Obama the heavy odds-on favorite in the upcoming US presidential election, according to a leading online bookmaker whose reliability some analysts believe equals or betters that of opinion polls.

According to Ireland's Intrade, a leader in the prediction market business, the prevalent betting predicts the Democratic senator will win all the states that John Kerry won in 2004, plus key states Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico and Missouri.

The current betting trend would give Obama 364 electoral votes in the November 4 presidential election, well over the minimum 270 needed to clinch the White House.

The prediction market works on "contracts" bought or sold according to whether a candidate is predicted to win or lose, respectively. The contract "price" is set, as in the financial markets, by the buying and selling activity.

At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT) Tuesday, Intrade's contract titled "Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election" was priced at 78.1 (or 7.81 dollars), which meant that Obama had 78 percent chance of winning.

The contract of Obama's Republican rival "John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election," was going for 22.0.

Experts are divided on the reliability of the online prediction market, but some believe past results show they are just as good or even better than opinion surveys.

In 2004, President George W. Bush won and lost in all the states Intrade predicted he would. In the 2006 legislative elections, it correctly predicted the Republicans would win a Senate majority, when even the pundits were unsure how the race would go.

James Surowiecky, an economist, New Yorker magazine contributor and author of "The Wisdom of Crowds," believes online betting is more reliable because risking money makes for a stronger commitment than simply talking with survey-takers.

© 2008 AFP